“The Serbian military industry stabs Russia in the back.” This sentence, published in an official statement by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), represents the most direct and crude attack by the Russian state on Serbia in modern history. The statement, which was reported by all pro-regime media in Russia, including the Belgrade branch of “Sputnik,” openly accuses “the Serbian defense industry of supplying hundreds of thousands of grenades and millions of bullets to Kyiv, in defiance of officially declared neutrality.” It goes on to say that this is done through “falsified end-user certificates” and via NATO member states—primarily Poland, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria, and more recently also via African countries. The SVR emphasizes that there can be no humanitarian justification for these supplies, as their sole purpose is “to kill and maim Russian soldiers and civilians,” and they stress that this is done with the consent of the Serbian leadership.

This announcement is not a diplomatic error. Nor is it a routine propaganda announcement. It is an operation, a political strike. Targeted, deliberate, and directly aimed at the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and Serbia’s official policy. This time, Moscow did not use its traditional propaganda channels to “challenge” Belgrade. This time it was done through the official Russian intelligence service, with everything signed and directed from the top of the Kremlin. This time, Russia is accusing Serbia of arming its enemy. Publicly, officially, and without diplomatic packaging.

The publication of this report by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service is not only a direct attack on Serbia but also a brutal attempt to discredit and destabilize President Aleksandar Vučić.

It is interesting that the very argument that has been used in the West for years, that Serbia is supposedly a “Russian Trojan horse” in the Balkans, is now being directly challenged by Moscow in this announcement. With the most open attack on the Serbian military industry, but above all on President Vučić’s policies, the SVR is showing nervousness and frustration and exposing the essential truth: Serbia is not under their control.

As someone who has been following and analyzing security and political trends in the region for years, I can testify to how quiet but determined the Serbian state’s steps toward the West have been. The purchase of the French Rafale fighter jets, the ending of the energy monopoly through the agreement with the EU on lithium and renewable energies, and the opening of the gas interconnector with Bulgaria—these are all concrete steps toward the West.

At the same time, Moscow saw all of this as a betrayal. The SVR has now decided to put this “betrayal” on paper in the form of accusations and directly target Aleksandar Vučić as a politician who—as they claim—benefits from the blood of “fraternal Slavic peoples.”

Such an accusation is not only cynical and shameless but also dangerous. Russia is trying to promote internal divisions in Serbia to mobilize extreme pro-Russian forces, which may not be numerous but are vocal and instrumentalized. It follows a classic destabilization model: initially labeling you as a traitor, then isolating you, and finally allowing domestic actors to overthrow you from within.

It is therefore important that both Ukraine and the EU clearly recognize what is happening here. This open accusation by the SVR against Serbia actually confirms that Serbia is, in practice, far removed from Russia. This contrasts significantly with some EU member states that have formally endorsed the sanctions and increased their trade with Moscow.

Aleksandar Vučić is neither a Russian “agent,” nor is Belgrade a Russian branch. If this were the case, the SVR would not have published such a statement. Russia is aware that it is losing Serbia, and it is losing the last illusion about the Balkans as a zone of its influence. That is why it behaves like a wounded imperialist and not like a friend.

For more than ten years, Serbia has been making strategic shifts that are moving the country away from Russia’s embrace. This process is not linear, nor is it without resistance. But every concrete step—whether it concerns security cooperation, energy policy, or relations with NATO and the EU—goes in one direction. The direction is not toward the East, but rather toward Western structures.

The Kremlin knows this. And that is why the SVR is not only targeting Serbia on the international stage with its current announcement. What is perhaps even more dangerous is that this is a message to the pro-Russian actors within Serbia. The message that the time has come to stop Vučić. That his rule must be weakened and overthrown. The goal is to take advantage of the current turmoil, student demonstrations, dissatisfaction, and people’s emotional attachment to Russia in order to create opportunities for the derailment of Serbia’s path toward Europe.

The Russian message is unmistakable: “Vučić has left the path of brotherhood with Russia and taken a diversion.” That’s why he should be taken down. Parts of the Serbian public clearly hear this signal. That makes this operation particularly dangerous.
And while some European politicians continue to accuse Belgrade of “sitting on two chairs,” they have not realized that Russia has clearly seen where Belgrade is sitting. And now that it has lost almost all leverage, it has decided to strike hard.

It is therefore hypocritical that certain EU officials continue to question Serbia’s European course. Instead of recognizing the country’s position in a complex political environment, they focus on superficial signals while ignoring fundamental changes. Moscow does not ignore them—it sees the truth and therefore attacks.

Therefore, both Ukraine and its allies in the West should understand how difficult it is to play politics in Serbia today. With a prevailing pro-Russian sentiment among the citizens, with Russian propaganda in the media, and with parts of the security apparatus that still harbor sympathies for Moscow, President Vučić is pursuing a policy of rational shift toward Europe.
And that is precisely why he is a target.

The SVR’s announcement is not about grenades or bullets. It is a political message: Serbia has betrayed us. A message that is not directed at Belgrade but at the domestic pro-Russian audience in Serbia to shake stability, provoke a revolt, create chaos, and stop the process of European integration.

This text is also an appeal: recognize where Belgrade stands today. Do not judge by polls; do not judge by tabloid headlines. Look at where the strategic agreements are, where the investments are, and where the alliances are.

And look at who is attacking Serbia today. That will tell you everything you need to know.